"Last night I had dinner in a wine bar, and next to us (my girlfriend and myself) sat a couple, and for some reason they wanted to talk to us.  Turns out the guy is a partner in a Hedge Fund …well anyway, I mentioned I have an interest in stocks and he suggested to me to stay away from the stock market, it will take all my money!  Find a nice mutual fund!  Ha!

To that I replied (ranted is probably a better description):

I came across your site the other day when searching CANSLIM. I find your site very interesting, and would like to ask you a few questions if you don’t mind.

1. How is your portfolio doing this year, and what’s the YTD return?
2. I am new to CANSLIM, in your opinion, will it be a good approach for casual trader?
3. In the beginning, I may need to follow your trade closely to get myself familiar with CANSLIM. Will you give buy/sell signal with reasons? Will you treat each trade the same in asset allocation, or differently because some may be more speculative play?

That’s all for now, and thank you very much for your time.

My Response:

Let me begin by saying that while I do use a CANSLIM approach to a certain degree, I use a much more flexible approach and implement my own variation- for example at times I use big momentum swing trades based purely on technicals when the time is right.  I also use extensive short trading during times of market weakness to profit on the other side.  So, while the core of my strategy focuses on buying the best companies and holding for several weeks/months, my strategy will ultimately depend on what the market gives me.  As far as cutting losses at 8% which the CANSLIM method recommends, again I choose to be more flexible.  Sometimes I cut my loss at 2% and other times it may be as much as 12%.  Generally, speaking though I adhere to the principle of keeping losses small.  This is critical.  My average loss over the past few years is right around 5%.

1.  The SelfInvestors Model portfolio is up just over 9% this year.  I’m going to have a tough time duplicating my 27.6% gain last year but given this incredibly volatile, sometimes irrational market I’m not at all unhappy with the performance thus far which is still more than double the S&P.  Each and every week I do a short review of the my performance in the Weekly Report released on Sundays.  I believe in complete transparency.  Hyping a few big winners while sweeping the losers under the rug seems to be the status of quo of many advisory services. 

2.  The CANSLIM approach is quite research intensive because you are focusing on technicals and fundamentals as well as gauging the health of the overall market.  Going this alone will consume much of your free time which is why I developed the tracking system and buy/sell alerts.  I do all the work and my tracking systems spit out the best candidates near a breakout or still in a buyable range.

3.  Absolutely.  All buy and sell signals (received within a few minutes of the transaction) come with a fairly detailed explanation of the trade and the size of each trade will depend upon the overall health of the market and the risk level of the trade.  For example a purchase in Cisco or Google will be much larger than a swing trade in a 3 dollar stock.

Here’s an example of a trading alert in Nastech Pharmaceuticals (NSTK) sent to members today:

"It’s been a very long time since I’ve initiated a QSP trade.  The conditions just haven’t been ripe recently and as I’ve said before I’m not going to initiate alerts for entertainment purposes.  There may be times when I go a few weeks without a new trade (although that will be rare).  While the overall market conditions remain volatile and uncertain making big bets on either side risky there is a sector that is seeing some big money coming in recently.  It’s possible that the next round of market leaders will come from this space.  That space is biotech.  NSTK is one such biotech stock that has seen some big buy volume behind it and it’s been featured in the #1 longs list for some time now.  I believe the time is right to initiate a small QSP trade in NSTK.  I’m in at 14.43 with a $10K position.

There are a few others you might look at in the sector such as IDP and ACEL.  I’ll have a special report on the biotechs for you this weekend."

Interested in the tracking databases, the model portfolio or email alerts of the SelfInvestors premium services?
Get all the details of each membership here: http://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/memberships/

Obessions

1. this site/my business – i’m a bit of a workaholic at times and have given up a lot in the last few years to build it so this may fall into the category of obsessive more than anything else

2. travel – love it, but haven’t had much time to do it – spent 6 weeks in Thailand a couple years ago and eventually plan to live somewhere overseas for 6 months out of year (my ideas are panama, mexico, ecuador, uruguay, argentina).  That plan has been pushed back several times!  Here’s me on the way to a camping trip in Thailand a few years ago:

3. music – living in seattle, i’ve been lucky to see some great local bands just a few steps from my door.  One of these days I’m hoping to put together a music page at the blog where I can share some of my favorite tracks of "undiscovered" bands.  The last show I went to was the Silversun Pickups a couple weeks ago.. probably one of my  top albums for ’07.  Not exactly "undiscovered" now, but still a favorite of mine.  Here’s a video from a set they did for Spin magazine.

 For more of a local flavor check out some friends of mine called The Maldives.  If you like your rock with a little bit of a country twang be sure to check them out and if you’re going to be in Portland in a couple weeks they are playing! They put on a fantastic live show.  They recently played a live set for the best radio station in the world!

4. the gym – does it count as an obsession if you’ve managed to get in there just 3 times in the past 8 months?
5. trading stocks – i think most people in this business would say the same thing.. it’s like gambling but with much better odds.  The downside? Void of cheap drinks and steak dinners.

Why Do I Blog?

1. helping others navigate and learn the markets - I sure wish investing blogs were around when I was learning this stuff!
2. interacting with other like minded people from all over the world
3. the hoards of cash I rake in from doing it (kidding)
4. hey, it’s not a bad marketing tool for the business I’m building
5. i enjoy it!

I’ll add one more question – An Embarassing (did I spell that right?) Moment

1. misspelling "street" (I said it so fast I said "d" instead of "t" ) at the district spelling be in front of several hundred people in 6th grade

What source do you use for upgrades and downgrades.. or do you even mess with it?

My Response:

Upgrades and Downgrades are useful to know before the market opens.  Often times valuation downgrades can occur after a stock has run up significantly and act as a "sale" allowing you to get in to the position if you missed the break out.  However, it can be tricky to get in at the right time on valuation downgrades.  The very best stocks may bounce immediately after gapping down at the open, while others may continue selling for several days.  It does require quite a bit of experience in chart reading, specifically with the intraday charts.  On the opposite side, an upgrade can provide the catalyst the stock needs to break out from a base.

A paid service I have really liked is www.flyonthewall.com which is about $25/month.  They provide near real time alerts on upgrades/downgrades, analyst earnings comments, rumors, etc.  Real Time Traders provides a good free list of upgrades and downgrades at http://www.rttnews.com/marketinfo/g_minfo.asp?page=upgrades

I just went and did something unusual. I just entered the $1,000,000 challenge on CNBC. So now you have got to help me win. If I win, I will sign up for a lifetime membership with Self-Investors.

My Response:

Great! - people who win these things put all their eggs in one basket on highly volatile, bigger reward trades… much like the quick strike profit plays i highlight in the Stock Watch reports.  I’d say if you stick to the following you got as decent a shot as anyone!

1. stick to no more than a few stocks for your entire portfolio
2. buy stocks under 10/share, preferably under 5
3. pray that one or two of them double in price over the next couple months

With such a short time frame, this contest is about 20% luck and 80% skill.  But hey, you’re odds of winning a million dollars here are a heckuva lot better than buying a lotto ticket.. and it doesn’t cost anything.   Good luck!

Question: 

How does an investor play the mergers and acquisitions game? When two companies are expected to merge, which stock should an investor buy?  How does an investor find the possible companies that may become acquired? The stock of the company almost always goes higher when it is announced.  Cramer mentioned 10 possible mergers on his show last night (20 companies).  Just wondered. Some of his ideas don’t materialize.

My Response:

It’s often times difficult to tell if a company may be acquired.. and it’s often just rumor or speculation which can move a stock.  The M&A game is mostly just pure luck unless of course you’re an insider who knows a little something.. which of course would get you into trouble with the SEC.  In a situation where a company is being purchased, you will almost always get a pop because the buying company will pay a premium.  In a merger situation of relative equals, it really depends on the situation and if the market thinks it makes sense.   Speculating on which companies may be bought out make for decent entertainment I suppose and he may just be right on a couple, but that alone is never a reason to buy a company.  The good news is that what you’ll find is that most of the companies that are being bought out and paid a premium for are exactly the companies that we are looking at.  Small, high growth companies that can add to the bottom lines of their larger counterparts.

Thanks for the tips on reading the charts. I never knew a person was supposed to look at the weekly chart first. Maybe that is what I have been doing wrong?  Thanks.

I looked at the charts for AVTR just to see if I could see what you meant. Where was the resistance on it?  I guessed at about $65. Is that right? Why does it look like it is in danger of breaking down below support of the 50 day?

My Response:

With that said, how can you stay on top of these break outs yourself?  The first thing I would do is head on over to the email alerts section of the members area and set yourself up to receive the premarket report of top break out plays every morning before the market opens.  I would sign up for report #3 which gives you the top 20 stocks near a break out or in a buyable range (within 5% of the pivot).  Just add an email address and click activate.  It takes a couple seconds and you’re set up to receive the best opportunites the market has to offer every morning to your inbox.   Additionaly, you can set yourself up to receive an alert when the break out happens based on various parameters (there is a detailed tutorial there to help you)  Keep in mind though that prices updates in the database are delayed 15 minutes, so you may miss the fast movers (but I’ve found very few stocks actually run way up in that first 15 minutes and never offer a decent buy point).  If you’re using real time alerts this is more of a safety measure because you don’t need to set the alerts, it’s all automated for you.

What I would do is go to the Breakout Center, then click Breakout Watch and go to the bottom of the table and select download tickers to a text file, then import into a watchlist in your real time charting package, then set your alerts for each stock.  This might take 20 minutes and your done.  You can go about  your business and set alerts to go to your email, cell phone or buzz your desktop.  There are many packages but I use TCNet.  This is the platform I’ll be using for the real time platinum service which will be launched very soon.  During the trading day you’ll be able to join me to discuss the trade set ups during the day or general investing questions.  We’ll discuss the finer points of chart reading, particularly on a real time, intraday basis as well as purchase and sell points.

Do you follow all the stocks every day that post earnings or just the ones that are good companies?  I can see what you mean by waiting until after the report to buy or not. Sometimes it is a good idea to buy before the report though.  How does one really know?  What service do you use to know what companies are going to report for that day?  Yahoo lists some and so does MSN. I have been watching www.earningswhispers.com some.

My Response:

I typically just follow the stocks that I’m tracking in the database, and will watch very closely a few of the very best companies that are near a breakout or within buyable range because maybe the earnings provides the catalyst to break out as we saw with LQDT.  I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to buy ahead of earnings, but there are times when I’ll hold a stock through earnings (sometimes if the company is larger and has proven itself over time – ie. Google or News Corp)
 
You won’t ever know what a company is going to report but the whisper number (which earningswhispers.com) provides is a much more accurate number than what the analyst estimates are and is the number that a stock often trades off of.  If a company beats the analyst estimates number but misses the whisper number, you’ll often see the stock sell.
 
It’s generally a good idea to avoid trading off earnings altogether.  Why worry if a company is going to beat the whisper and guide higher for next quarter?  Here is a copy of a post I made at the blog a couple years ago regarding earnings:
 
"The greater the degree of uncertainty, the greater your risk in holding a position in a stock. All stocks are uncertainties, but there is no moment of greater uncertainty than that of an earnings report. It’s the time when the company reports on how well it is doing now and how well it expects to do in the future. Often times, other major announcements are made as well. It can be a time of extreme volatility, especially with small cap, high growth stocks. Sure, the upside potential can be great, but there are too many things that can go wrong, which could cause the stock to plummet. Remember, the name of the game is preservation of capital. You can always repurchase the stock once the coast is clear.

A company may report below analyst estimates, or the whisper number (earnings that the company is rumored to report, often leaked by an insider). There are times when a company will beat the analyst estimate, but not the whisper number and sell off.

They may release negative news about the company, the industry, or reveal a less than optimistic outlook for the future.

"Buy the rumor, sell the news". Often times a stock will rise ahead of expected good earnings, only to sell off once the great earnings are released. "