SelfInvestors | ETFs, IPOs & Breakout Stocks » Weekly/After Stock Market Review Archives

Another Great Depression Stock Market?

Tate Dwinnell — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 16:51:29 +0000

Much has been made of the similarities between current times and the Great Depression. The first leg down of each crash creating fear that a complete financial collapse was imminent, only to be averted by massive liquidity fueling hope and optimism, at least for a short time. If history does indeed repeat itself (and it often does in the stock market), then there is reason for Great concern.

We’ve now completed the first big crash (in the latter half of 2008), followed by the first big retracement of around 50%. Now, just like then, there are many that feel we’re out of the woods with some talking heads even calling for a new bull market. A 50% retracement rally in less than a year will do that. Nobody knows how all this plays out, but with the growing debt issues, the coming increase in taxes, growing government control and the and the fear of skyrocketing inflation down the road, it’s not exactly conducive to a rip roaring economy. .. and you can’t ignore the similarities to 1929. At the very least, we’ve got an extremely bumpy road ahead and it’s going to pay to be extremely cautious in the coming years.

Below is a great video done by Adam Hewison of Market Club taking a look at the stock market in 1929 vs 2010 through the Dow. He brings up a good point that many baby boomers have already been hit hard once, recovered much of losses and will likely do anything to protect what’s left of their nest egg which includes exiting the stock market completely. Perhaps that’s a train that can’t stopped no matter how much money the government throws at it.

Click to view the video

Video: S&P Indicates Institutions Heading For The Exits

Tate Dwinnell — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 18:51:09 +0000

As I mentioned in the last market health blog post, the market has turned to the bearish side and I have two videos for you taking a look at this important index. One video is from me, taking a look at all the important support and resistance levels on the weekly, daily and hourly time frames of the SPY (S&P tracking ETF) and the other is from Adam Hewison of Market Club taking a look at the S&P 500. He highlights the fibonacci retracement as well as his proprietary trade triangle technology to determine how to play this market in the coming weeks. We both come to the same conclusion.

Click the image to view Adam’s video

Click the image to view my video

Bulls Run Out Of Gas As S&P, Dow Take Out Key Support

Tate Dwinnell — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 04:39:43 +0000

The following was a note sent to my premium members tonight and wanted to pass it along to my blog readers:

It’s safe to say the bulls have run out of gas. It’s always interesting how the market begins to show signs of deterioration in certain leaders and sectors before the big plunge takes place. Over the past couple weeks, we witnessed the China plays begin to crack.. it began with the high flying water plays, moved to the solar names and today it was the wind energy stocks. In hindsight, I regret a bit not taking more off the table in the China names. I thought increasing the hedge with FXP would be enough.. not quite enough. I still have a longer term view of these stocks and they will all benefit big time as China pours billions into green energy. However, I may look to ease up if I can get some decent bounces back to resistance levels.

As you know, I have been increasing overall short exposure in the past week as those distribution days began to pile up. Today was the fourth in less than two weeks which culminated in the Dow taking out key support levels of the 50 day moving average and the upward trend off the March lows. Today was the most significant day of selling I’ve seen since the end of October. I certainly thought the market was topping out then, so I could certainly be wrong again, but when I see this kind of distribution I will play accordingly and adjust if I’m proven wrong. Along with the Dow taking out the 50 day moving average with heavy volume, the S&P has taken out an important level of support of the upward trend line off the July lows. It still has support of its 50 day moving average, but downward momentum would indicate that it probably wants to test that 1100 level in the coming days.

So, in light of the moves of the past two days, the strategy of the portfolio has shifted and that is to get more aggressive with short exposure into the rallies.

You can see the Dow taking out minor support around 10500 today and major support of the 50 day moving average with heavy sell volume. More Dow analysis here.

The S&P is still holding its 50 day moving average but probably not for long considering today’s downside momentum. More analysis of the S&P here.

A Summer Hiatus Begins..

Tate Dwinnell — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 03:37:13 +0000

It’s been more than five years now running Self Investors and it’s time for me to reflect and revitalize. Blogging, researching and trading the markets can be incredibly demanding at times, particularly over the past two years and quite frankly, I’m exhausted and need a break. I’m not breaking 100%, but am scaling back for a stretch, so likely no posts here at the Self Investors blog until after Labor Day. Until then, good trading!

Head Fake Head And Shoulders Top, Indices Break Out

Tate Dwinnell — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 15:30:56 +0000

Wow, now that’s what I call an oversold bounce. I was expecting some retracement of the selling off oversold conditions last week, but not of that magnitude. The recovery was such that the much discussed head and shoulders top has failed as all the indices broke out from 4 week long down trends. Of course, those that dismiss chart reading as voodoo are using the move as proof that technical analysis doesn’t work. What they forget to include in their argument is that technical analysis is used as a probability tool to increase your odds of success. The patterns don’t always work and some work better than others. In this case there may have been so many people calling this top (myself included), that it was setup for failure. After all, the market generally moves against the herd. Just about every hour over the past couple weeks, the H&S top was discussed on CNBC. It’s something I discussed last week and was a bit concerned about, but the move of last week still surprised me. That was some serious resistance to work through and the market sliced through with ease as shorts scrambled to cover positions.

The move of last week is a game changer with bulls now back in control, especially if this jolt higher is digested in an orderly manner. Let’s keep in mind that we moved from oversold to overbought quickly last week with the market looking a bit tired Friday, so probably setting up for some kind of pull back. That would provide an opportunity to continue to lighten the load on the short side and add high quality breakout stocks on the long side.

Let’s take a look at the charts of the indices starting with the S&P500. The H&S top failed and the S&P broke out of its month long down trend above the 915ish level which also happened to be the 50 day moving average, so a tough level of resistance to clear. Now we have support at the 930 level and if that is taken out, we’re probably looking at a filling of the gap around the 905 level. The next target on the upside is the high of the year around the 956 level. If we clear that, we’re most certainly headed to test the 1000 level.

The Nasdaq staged another mighty impressive performance by kicking off support of the 1750 level and actually closed the week above the previous 2009 high of 1879.92.. a very bullish move. We’ll have to see if it can hold above that level throughout the week, which would lend validity to the move, but I still think we’ll need to pull back a bit. For the Nasdaq, that might mean a test of new support around the 1850 level. If that level is taken out, look for a move to fill the gap around 1800.

The Dow looks similar to the S&P, breaking out of that down trend as well as the 50 day moving average, so a few very important levels of resistance cleared which will now act as support. We now have support around the 8600 and 8500 levels with the 2009 highs the next likely target on the upside.

In summary, last week’s move was very impressive which I think ultimately pushes the S&P and Dow to their 2009 highs as well. Should that move happen, we’ll have to consider the potential for a double top situation in those indices. However, if several high volume selling days don’t appear around those levels, then a move to the Dow 10,0000 and S&P 1,000 level becomes much more likely.

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Isn’t Time You Took Control of Your Financial Future?

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

The Self Investors Model Portfolio wrapped up 2006 with a gain of 27.6%, 2007 with a gain of 30.2%, finished nearly 35% ahead of the S&P in a very difficult 2008 and is on pace for another good year in 2009, outperforming the S&P by 9%. This is a REAL portfolio with position sizing and not based on extrapolated hypothetical gains for each trade. On average, it beats the S&P by 20% per year. The result?

* Putting $100K into an S&P tracking index at the beginning of 2004 and you’re down more than $10K.
* The Self Investors Model in the same time period would have more than doubled your money (up 140%). That’s the power of not buying and holding!

When comparing the Self Investor Model Portfolio to the 535 Model Portfolios tracked by Hulbert Digest for annualized returns over the past 5 years, just four model portfolios produced better results and none of those used diversified approaches.

1. Cabot China & Emerging Markets: 22.2%
2. No Load Portfolios (Gold/Cash): 19.9%
3. No Load Portfolios (Gold/Shorting): 19.9%
4. Outstanding Investments: 18.2%
(focuses on oil & precious metals – did extremely well until it was crushed in the market crash in 2008)
::: >> 5. Self Investors Model Portfolio: 17.5%
(The SI portfolio isn’t currently tracked by Hulbert (I’ll have to look into how to get it included) but every trade alert is sent via IM and email as well as tracked in a database which includes trade notes, position size and entry price). The SI portfolio uses a diversified approach and hedging strategies to significantly beat the market year after year.

** Astonishing fact #1: About a 1/3 of all model portfolios tracked by Hulbert Digest have not made a dime over the past 5 years!
** Astonishing fact #2: Just 6% of the model portfolios tracked have annualized returns over 5 years of 10% or more!

Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts in the SI Model Portfolio within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction? You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and video reports with the very popular Gold membership. Don’t delay, get started today and join me for many more market beating months here at SelfInvestors.com.

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Textile Manufacturing: 17.70%
2. Resorts & Casinos: 17.65%
3. Printed Circuit Boards: 17.45%
4. Semis – Memory Chips: 15.80%
5. Sporting Activities: 15.10%
6. Office Supplies: 14.80%
7. Appliances: 14.30%
8. Silver: 14.30%
9. Industrial Metals & Minerals: 14.15%
10. Copper: 14.05%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Trucking: -1.95%
2. Banks – Mid Atlantic: -.25%
3. Internet Service Providers: 1.15%
4. Health Care Plans: 1.20%
5. Restaurants: 1.20%
6. Specialized Health Services: 1.45%
7. Medical Labs & Research: 2.20%
8. Medical Practitioners: 2.25%
9. Biotech: 2.45%
10. Water Utilities: 2.50%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. Templeton Russia & E Europe (TRF): 23.75%
2. Market Vectors Steel (SLX): 14.65%
3. iShares US Home Construction (ITB): 14.20%
4. SPDR Metal & Mining (XME): 14.20%
5. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB): 14.00%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. iShares 20YR Treasury (TLT): -5.20%
2. iShares 7-10YR Treasury (IEF): -2.40%
3. Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND): -.80%
4. iShares Aggregrate Bond Fund (AGG): -.70%
5. iShares 1-3YR Treasury (SHY) -.25%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (7/20/2009- 7/24/2009) :::

Monday:        Leading Indicators
Tuesday:       None
Wednesday: Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, Existing Home Sales
Friday:           Mich Sentiment

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday: Johnson Controls (JCI)
Tuesday: Amedisys (AMED), Capella Education (CPLA), EPIQ Systems (EPIQ), FPL Group (FPL), Health Grades (HGRD), Panera Bread (PNRA), Stericycle (SRCL)
Wednesday: AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA), Cerner (CERN), Compellant Technologies (CML), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Honda (HMC), ITC Holdings (ITC), Itron (ITRI), Rightnow Technologies (RNOW), Rubicon (RBCN), Shenandoah Tel. (SHEN), Tetra Tech (TTEK), Trex (TWP), Visa (V)
Thursday: American Superconductor (AMSC), Art Technology (ARTG), Dolby Industries (DLB), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Mastercard (MA), Netsuite (N), Sourcefire (FIRE), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Strayer Education (STRA), Synaptics (SYNA), Vistaprint (VPRT), Xcel Energy (XEL)

S&P, Dow Confirm Head & Shoulders; Nasdaq Close To Confirming Double Top

Tate Dwinnell — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 22:31:48 +0000

It’s official. I’ve been highlighting the possibility of a head and shoulders top confirmation on the Dow and S&P for several weeks and now we have confirmation of those formations as both broke through the neck lines this week. While we’re oversold and could see a minor bounce, the momentum and trend is clearly down until proven otherwise.

It’s interesting to see all the discussion about the head and shoulders formation on CNBC, who seem to be paying more attention to technical analysis. Even Jim Cramer is turning to the dark side and displaying charts on his show. It wasn’t long ago that charting was ridiculed and dismissed as voodoo by the mainstream media.

Let’s turn to the voodoo and take a look at the Nasdaq,

which appears to be on the verge of a technical break down as well. A double top would be confirmed with a close below the 1750 level. That would likely set it up for a move to the next level of support around 1665 which is the Jan 09 high and the breakout point of that big double bottom base. Should we get a market bounce next week, look for a test of resistance around 1775 and if it can clear that, a test of 1800.

The S&P confirmed the head and shoulders top formation (outlined in black) this week but continues to hold support where the lows of the left shoulder and the 200 day moving average converge around 879. Again, we are considerably oversold and could get a bit of a bounce soon, but trend is definitely down. The confirmation of the head and shoulders top likely sets up the S&P for a move to the 800ish level before a new trend up can take place.

Same for the Dow – a confirmation of H&S top last week with clear resistance now between 8220 – 8250. I’m looking for a test of the 7500ish area in the Dow before another major rally can begin.

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Isn’t Time You Took Control of Your Financial Future?

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Internet Service Providers: 11.85%
2. Auto Parts Stores: 3.30%
3. Medical Practitioners: 2.90%
4. Hospitals: 2.05%
5. Grocery Stores: 2.00%
6. Banks – SE: 1.60%
7. Healthcare Plans: 1.60%
8. Tobacco Products: 1.30%
9. Rental & Leasing Services: 1.20%
10. REIT – Healthcare Facilities: 1.10%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Nonmetallic Mineral Mining: -10.90%
2. General Contractors: -10.00%
3. Broadcasting – Radio: -9.75%
4. Silver: -9.70%
5. Heavy Construction: -9.10%
6. Farm & Construction Machinery: -7.70%
7. Cement: -7.70%
8. Recreational Goods: -7.40%
9. Steel & Iron: -7.40%
10. Gold: -7.10%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. Claymore China Real Estate (TAO) 8.80%
2. India Fund (IFN) 5.20%
3. iShares Taiwan (EWT) 4.35%
4. iShares Hong Kong (EWH) 4.00%
5. SPDR Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) 3.85%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) -4.75%
2. Templeton Russia & E Europe (TRF) -4.60%
3. Claymore Global Solar (TAN) -4.60%
4. iShares Global Energy (IXC) -3.95%
5. iShares France (EWQ) -3.85%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (7/13/2009- 7/17/2009) :::

Monday:        Treasury Budget
Tuesday:       PPI, Retail Sales, Business Inventories
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, CPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, Philly Fed
Friday:           Building Permits, Housing Starts

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Earnings season is beginning to ramp up again …

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs (GS), Intel (INTC), J&J (JNJ), Ocean Power Tech (OPTT)
Thursday: Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM) JP Morgan (JPM)
Friday: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE)

Market Divergence Remains – Nasdaq Strong, S&P Head & Shoulders Top Potential

Tate Dwinnell — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 03:58:03 +0000

I’m short on time this week, so will move right into the charts. Basically not much change in my analysis from last week as the indices continue to diverge with Nasdaq strength and S&P weakness. The Nasdaq actually broke out of its two week consolidation on Thursday, closing the week above the 20 day moving average yet again. Amazing. I don’t think too many would have predicted the Nasdaq would close above the 20 by the end of the week after plunging Monday and Tuesday to test the 50 day moving average. Support at 1800 is back in play, with 1750 now shaping up as strong support as well.

Contrast the strength of the Naz with the deterioration in the S&P and potential head and shoulders top. We’re right back to where we closed the previous week around the 920 level with significant resistance in the 925 – 930 range. Another test of that level may just carve out the right shoulder of the topping formation for the S&P, so we need to watch this level closely. The 900 level remains critical on the support side. A weekly close below that level would be significantly bearish.

While we have some important economic data coming out this week along with the unemployment figures on Thursday, I doubt this market will make a meaningful move ahead of the July 4th weekend.

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Isn’t Time You Took Control of Your Financial Future?

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

The Self Investors Model Portfolio wrapped up 2006 with a gain of 27.6%, 2007 with a gain of 30.2%, finished nearly 35% ahead of the S&P in a very difficult 2008 and is off to a good start here in 2009, outperforming the S&P by 5%. This is a REAL portfolio with position sizing and not based on extrapolated hypothetical gains for each trade. On average, it beats the S&P by 20% per year. The result?

* Putting $100K into an S&P tracking index at the beginning of 2004 and you’re down more than $20K.
* The Self Investors Model in the same time period would have more than doubled your money. That’s the power of not buying and holding!

1. Cabot China & Emerging Markets: 22.2%
2. No Load Portfolios (Gold/Cash: 19.%
2. No Load Portfolios (Gold/Shorting): 19.9%
4. Outstanding Investments: 18.2%
(focuses on oil & precious metals – did extremely well until it was crushed in the market crash)
::: >> 5. Self Investors Model Portfolio: 17.5%
(The SI portfolio isn’t currently tracked by Hulbert (and I’ve never looked into it) but every trade alert is sent via IM and email as well as tracked in a database which includes trade notes, position size and entry price)

Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts in the Model Portfolio within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction? You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and video reports with the very popular Gold membership. Don’t delay, get started today and join me for many more market beating months here at SelfInvestors.com.

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Medical Practitioners: 13.50%
2. Home Furnishing Stores: 8.75%
3. Computer Based Systems: 5.90%
4. Office Supplies: 5.75%
5. Dairy Products: 5.50%
6. Property Management: 5.45%
7. Silver: 5.35%
8. Consumer Services: 5.15%
9. Drug Related Products: 3.90%
10. Building Materials Wholesale: 3.85%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Aerospace/Defense: -9.40%
2. Toy & Hobby Stores: -5.75%
3. Sporting Goods Stores: -5.30%
4. Metal Fabrication: -4.65%
5. Long Term Care Facilities: -4.05%
6. Banks – Pacifiic: -4.00%
7. Textile Manufacturing: -4.00%
8. General Entertainment: -3.90%
9. Diagnostic Substances: -3.30%
10. Movie Production – Theaters: -3.30%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. Claymore China Real Estate (TAO) 8.80%
2. India Fund (IFN) 5.20%
3. iShares Taiwan (EWT) 4.35%
4. iShares Hong Kong (EWH) 4.00%
5. SPDR Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) 3.85%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) -4.75%
2. Templeton Russia & E Europe (TRF) -4.60%
3. Claymore Global Solar (TAN) -4.60%
4. iShares Global Energy (IXC) -3.95%
5. iShares France (EWQ) -3.85%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/29/2009- 7/3/2009) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       Consumer Confidence, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales, ISM Index, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Initial Claims, Factory Orders
Friday:           None

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Still slow for earnings.. the bulk of earnings will get going in a couple weeks

Monday: Apollo Group (APOL)

S&P500 and Dow Breaking Down, Nasdaq Remains Strong

Tate Dwinnell — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:41:42 +0000

The indices are down but not out. That was the theme of last week as the indices broke down out of tight, short trading ranges and are in the process of testing some key resistance levels which could soon tell us whether the rally will continue or enter a prolonged retracement. Last week, I discussed the developing head and shoulders formations, but it’s much too soon to tell whether those topping formations will confirm. For now, the Nasdaq remains remarkably strong and continues to trade above its 20 day moving average and actually looks poised to continue moving higher. Contrast that with the Dow and S&P which closed the week below their 20 day moving averages for the first time since the rally began in March.. so certainly some divergences and contradictions taking place that makes the current market a bit difficult to read. I am leaning to the cautious side. Tech and commodities have been the backbone of the rally and with commodities showing signs of cracking last week, perhaps they lead the market to the downside. Let’s take a look at some key support and resistance levels I’ll be watching on the major indices next week.

Remarkably, the Nasdaq isn’t showing any signs of breaking down yet as tech bellweathers (with the exception of RIMM) such as CSCO, MSFT, AAPL and GOOG all remain quite strong. The Nasdaq closed the week above that 20 day moving average (in green) yet again and actually looks poised to continue moving higher. Perhaps it’s a head fake and we’ll know that by the end of next week.

The S&P is showing some signs of deterioration having closed the week below the 20 day moving average for the first time since the rally began. There is going to be significant short term resistance in the 925 – 930 area and BIG support at the 900 level where the 50 and 200 day moving averages converge. If the S&P closes below the 900 level at any point in the next few weeks, I will get fairly aggressive on the short side. On the other hand, if it bounces big off that level with volume, that may be a spot to get aggressively long. That 900 level is the BIG line in the sand for me to determine a bullish/bearish market.

The Dow remains the laggard of the indices and not only took out the 20 dma last week, but closed below the 200 day moving average as well. Friday’s highs will provide a significant hurdle next week as will the 8750 level if it can clear Friday’s highs. On the support side, look for a test of 8250 if the Dow takes out the 8500 level next week. If the 8250 level is taken out, that confirms a head and shoulders top, and sets up a much larger drop.

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Isn’t Time You Took Control of Your Financial Future?

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

The Self Investors Model Portfolio wrapped up 2006 with a gain of 27.6%, 2007 with a gain of 30.2%, finished nearly 35% ahead of the S&P in a very difficult 2008 and is off to a good start here in 2009, outperforming the S&P by 7%. This is a REAL portfolio with position sizing and not based on extrapolated hypothetical gains for each trade. On average, it beats the S&P by 20% per year. The result?

Get Your Self Investors Gold Membership Today!

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Health Care Plans: 10.15%
2. Music & Video Stores: 5.60%
3. General Entertainment: 4.75%
4. Medical Laboratories & Research: 4.55%
5. Medical Equipment Wholesale: 4.35%
6. Home Health Care: 3.75%
7. Mortgage Investment: 3.65%
8. Healthcare Info Services: 3.40%
9. Education & Training Services: 3.30%
10. Research Services: 5.00%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. REIT – Hotel/Motel: -17.75%
2. Silver: -13.95%
3. Copper: -12.60%
4. Agricultural Chemicals: -11.30%
5. Tobacco Products: -10.35%
6. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services: -10.40%
7. Drugs Wholesale: -9.70%
8. Oil & Gas Independent -9.40%
9. Aluminum: -9.30%
10. Cement: -9.05%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. iShares Health Care Providers (IHF) 5.65%
2. US Natural Gas (UNG) 3.35%
3. Biotech (BBH) 2.60%
4. iShares Healthcare (IYH) 2.00%
5. iShares 20 Year Treasury (TLT) 1.90%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. Templeton Russia & E Europe (TRF) -25.40%
2. Market Vectors Coal (KOL) -12.20%
3. India Fund (IFN) -12.05%
4. Claymore Global Solar (TAN) -10.80%
5. Central Europe and Russia (CEE) -10.70%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/22/2009- 6/26/2009) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       Existing Home Sales
Wednesday: Fed Rate Decision, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, Initial Claims, GDP (final)
Friday:           Personal Income/Spending

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: AeroVironment (AVAV), Americas Car Mart (CRMT), Oracle (ORCL)

Wednesday: Monsanto (MON), Nike (NKE), Red Hat (RHT),

Thursday: Accenture (ACN), Lennar Cor (LEN)

Friday: AZZ (AZZ), KB Home (KBH)

Nasdaq Flashes The Golden Cross; Coiling The Spring For Another Rally?

Tate Dwinnell — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 22:12:33 +0000

I’m short on time this weekend so will keep the commentary to a minimum and just focus on the chart of the Nasdaq and what it might be telling us about where we’re headed. The market is definitely showing some signs of fatigue recently but continues to digest gains in a very health manner and could very well be coiling the spring for another push higher, quite possibly to the next level of major resistance which in the the case of the Nasdaq is in the 1900 – 1947 range. Note that the 50 day moving average has now crossed above the 200 day moving average, forming “the golden cross” which is a decent indicator of a bullish market. I still think we’re probably setting up for one last push of a few percent which would market the top of this leg up before entering a significant retracement phase.

We’ll have to keep an eye on the possibility for another head and shoulders top formation similar to what we saw at the end of 08 and into 09. A confirmation of that pattern could set us up for a possible test of the March lows, but I think the odds of that happening are quite slim. An area where I’ll be looking to get considerably aggressive on the long side would be a successful test of support in the 1665 area. For next week, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the top and bottom of the tight trading range in all the indices for an indication of shorter term strength or weakness. For now, the trend up is still strong until proven otherwise. No change in my strategy either . . I continue to trade the small to mid cap momentum plays particularly in the China and commodity areas, while looking for longer term hedging plays in both ETFs and individual stocks. The closer the indices get to major resistance (Naz 1900ish, S&P 1000ish and Dow 9088ish), the more aggressive I’ll be on the short side.

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Isn’t Time You Took Control of Your Financial Future?

The Self Investors Model Portfolio wrapped up 2006 with a gain of 27.6%, 2007 with a gain of 30.2%, finished nearly 35% ahead of the S&P in a very difficult 2008 and is off to a good start here in 2009, outperforming the S&P by 7%. This is a REAL portfolio with position sizing and not based on extrapolated hypothetical gains for each trade. On average, it beats the S&P by 20% per year. The result?

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Toy & Hobby Stores: 9.45%
2. Aluminum: 8.60%
3. Dairy Products: 8.30%
4. Shipping: 8.00%
5. Banks – MidAtlantic: 6.90%
6. Property Management/Development: 6.45%
7. Recreational Goods – Other: 6.20%
8. Air Services – Other: 6.05%
9. Data Storage Devices: 5.05%
10. Confectioners: 5.00%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Resorts & Casinos: -9.20%
2. Major Airlines: -7.90%
3. Health Care Plans: -7.20%
4. Sporting Goods Stores: -5.90%
5. Hospitals: -5.75%
6. Textile Manufacturing: -5.75%
7. Jewelry Stores: -5.35%
8. REIT – Hotel/Motel: -5.30%
9. Gaming Activities: -4.95%
10. Music & Video Stores: -4.95%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. iShares Sweden (EWD) 6.00%
2. PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) 5.60
3. US Oil Fund (USO) 5.45%
4. ING Global Equity Dividend (IGD) 5.10%
5. iShares Australia (EWA) 4.75%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. Holders Internet Infrastructure (IIH) -13.90%
2. Caribbean Basin (CUBA) -11.75%
3. Templeton Russia & E Europe (TRF) -6.10%
4. iShares Taiwan (EWT) -5.30%
5. PowerShares Dynamic Retail (PMR) 4.50%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/15/2009- 6/19/2009) :::

Monday:        NY Empire Manufacturing
Tuesday:       Building Permits, Housing Starts, PPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
Wednesday: CPI, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Leading Indicators, Initial Claims, Business Inventories
Friday:           None

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday: Capstone Turbine (CPST), Casella Waste (CWST)

Tuesday: Best Buy (BBY), Factet Research (FDS)

Wednesday: Fed Ex (FDX)

Thursday: Research In Motion (RIMM)

Market Sells The Green Shoot, But S&P 1000 Still In Sight

Tate Dwinnell — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:44:54 +0000

One key component to pin pointing market tops and bottoms is the market reaction to news. It’s something I’ve discussed quite a few times here in the past few years and with this V shaped market rally continuing into the stratosphere, it’s worth keeping an eye on to help determine when this rally might roll over for more than a few percentage points. Certainly, there have been a few technical indications that the rally is cracking in the foundation, but the house that the bulls built remains standing for now with Dow 9000 and S&P 1000 in the cross hairs. I mentioned last week that the inability of the bears to take control for than a day or two with buyers stepping in each time at key levels increasing the likelihood of an upside breakout out of consolidation. On Monday, we got the confirmation of Friday’s strange end of day breakout, so the next leg up is in process.

As the market battles more difficult levels of resistance, we’ll very likely we’ll see a shift from market rallies on any glimmer of hope (aka green shoots, or as one of my members Charlie likes to call green kudzu) to a market where “better than expected” won’t cut it and a focus on the negative returns. We saw that Friday for the first time since the rally began as it appeared traders focused on the surge in the unemployment rate to 9.4% (note that this already surpasses the 8.9% the Fed was using in its stress tests of banks for more adverse conditions in 09) and the continuing spike in Treasury yields. Can you imagine the magnitude of the rally had a big, unexpected drop in jobless claims occurred several weeks ago? Following an open gap up Friday morning, traders quickly sold into the news and each attempt at a rally was thwarted. This doesn’t derail the rally, but the reaction to news is something to keep a close eye on.

Let’s turn to the charts..

The Nasdaq remains the strongest of the major indices with a tremendous amount of support in place all the way down to 1600. The dramatic move over the past few months sets up a looming “golden cross” situation where the 50 day moving average (in blue) crosses above the 200 day moving average (in red) (Note: the Q’s have already confirmed the golden cross). It’s a bull market indicator for many analysts just as a cross of the 50 day moving average below the 200 day moving average signals a bear market (this last happened in early 2008) and proved to be a darn good exit signal. In my opinion it’s a bit too simplistic but generally it’s not a bad indication of the overall health of the market. Coming out of the internet bubble, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average for the first time in early 2003 which kicked off a nearly 5 year bull market. I’ll have more on the comparison to today’s market collapse to the internet bubble collapse in an upcoming report.

I do think that this stage of the basing pattern is mighty extended with the potential for just a few more percent left before a major retracement takes place (again, more on this in an upcoming report). I’m looking for the Nasdaq to test the 1900 level and possibly fill the gap around 1947 before the major retracement begins. There is going to be tremendous support around the 1675 – 1700 level but given this sharp rise off the bottom we can’t rule out a 50% retracement which would put us in the 1600 range (another strong level of support). At this point, I don’t think there’s any way the Nasdaq touches those March lows again, but I’d have to reevaluate that if the Nasdaq takes out the 1600 level. I think the odds of that happening are quite slim.

The S&P is having some difficulty around resistance of the Jan highs but still closed the week above that 200 day moving average. It looks to me like there is enough juice left to test the next level of resistance around 1000. On the support side, the area where the 20 dma & 200 dma (labeled incorrectly on the chart) converge (around 925) will serve as strong support.

The Dow closed the week above its 200 day moving average as well and is looking poised to test the next level of resistance around the Jan highs. The market is getting back into overbought levels, so may need to come back a little or trade sideways, but there remains considerable strength in this market.

My trading strategy remains as it has over the past several weeks. I’m trading high momentum plays on the long side, primarily in small caps and specifically in the China and commodities areas while looking for spots to add longer term hedging.

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Isn’t Time You Took Control of Your Financial Future?

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** Astonishing fact #1: Roughly a 1/3 of all model portfolios tracked by Hulbert Digest have lost money over the last 5 years!
** Astonishing fact #2: Just 6% of the model portfolios tracked have annualized returns over 5 years of 10% or more!

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Aluminum: 13.60%
2. Auto Dealerships: 12.90%
3. Trucks & Other Vehicles: 11.55%
4. Textile Manufacturing: 11.40%
5. Aerospace/Defense: 11.35%
6. Major Airlines: 11.35%
7. Recreational Goods – Other: 10.85%
8. Department Stores: 10.40%
9. Industrial Equipment & Components: 10.20%
10. Research Services: 10.15%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Gold: -6.15%
2. Drugs Wholesale: -5.50%
3. Silver: -5.25%
4. Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: -3.40%
5. Internet Service Providers: -3.25%
6. Publishing – Periodicals: -3.25%
7. Banks – Midwest: -3.15%
8. Residential Construction: -2.65%
9. Semis – Integrated: -2.40%
10. Broadcasting – Radio: -2.35%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. Templeton Russia & E Europe (TRF) 19.10%
2. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA) 18.60%
3. Claymore Global Solar Energy (TAN) 9.80%
4. PowerShares Clean Energy (PBW) 9.40%
5. Morgan Stanley Frontier Markets (FFD) 8.50%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) -6.40%
2. iShares Taiwan (EWT) -4.90%
3. ING Global Dividend (IGD) -4.75%
4. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) -4.75%
5. iShares Sweden (EWD) 4.70%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/8/2009- 6/12/2009) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       Wholesale Inventories
Wednesday: Fed Beige Book, Treasury Budget, Trade Balance, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Retail, Initial Claims, Business Inventories
Friday:           Export/Import Prices, Mich Sentiment

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: 99 Cents Only (NDN), Sina.com (SINA), Titan Machinery (TITN)

Thursday: ArcSight (ARST), Hoku Scientific (HOKU), Lululemon (LULU)