Last week I discussed the resiliency of the market and the increasing ability to hold up or even rally in the face of bad news.  That resiliency was on display again Friday morning as  the indices sold off ahead of the open on news the Senate failed to pass the auto bailout and more details surrounding the Bernard Madoff 50 billion dollar ponzi scheme, but began rallying almost immediately and closed with a decent gain.  Traders were probably pricing in to some degree that a short term resolution will come from the White House with a longer term plan implemented once the Obama administration takes control of the ship.  My feeling is that once some kind of plan is officially announced, we’ll get a decent move up but just as we’ve seen from other government intervention, the rally will be fairly short lived as reality sinks in. 

Read Entire Post “Madoff Ponzi, Failed Auto Bailout Not Enough To Spook Market” Here

Not much has happened with the major indices since my last report, so for the weekly report I thought I’d go ahead and take a look at a few ETF’s. 

Gold, specifically the iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU), has taken out an accelerated trend line from last summer and appears headed to the next level of support at the longer term trend line around 75 – 80.  The long overdue correction is underway.

While Gold undergoes a correction, so too has the PowerShares Metals Fund (DBB) which is comprised mostly of copper, aluminum and zinc futures.  It had a tremendous run at the beginning of the year up to major resistance around the highs of last April.  It’s digested those gains in a healthy manner and is finding support around the 50 and 200 day moving averages. 

Natural gas has been red hot in 08, running up nearly 50% and is now digesting those gains.  Natural gas hasn’t had nearly the run that oil has and might soon offer a  good entry point for the long haul as it pulls back to the breakout point of a double bottom base.

I

Is uranium/nuclear the next commodity/energy play to run?  That appears to be the case as it carves out the bottom of a double bottom base. 

Transports, particularly trucking and railroads have done extremely well and several stocks in this space have been breaking out. Notice the Ishares DJ Transportation Fund (IYT) has begun a new uptrend.

The US real estate sector has been improving, but for the long haul I like the potential of international real estate much better.  A good, diversified way to play it is with the SPDR Intl Real Estate Index (RWX), which has cleared a downtrend. 

Remember the semis?  You don’t hear much about this sector anymore and with the semis still confined within a 4 year channel, it’s easy to forget about.  The Semiconductors Holders Trust (SMH) hit a nearly 4 year low in January and has cleared a short 5 month downtrend, paving the way for a test of the next level of resistance around 32 in the coming weeks/months.

::: Model Portfolio :::

** This section will now appear as a separate report about every other Wednesday. 

The Self Investors Model Portolio wrapped up 2007 with a 30.2% gain.  Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction in the portfolio?  You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and reports with the very popular Gold membership.  Don’t delay, get started today and join me for many more highly profitable months here at SelfInvestors.com.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Investment Brokerage: 39%
2. Education & Training Services: 19.85%
3. Semiconductor – Memory Chips: 16.90%
4. Processing Systems & Products: 11.60%
5. Manufactured Housing: 11.40%
6. Industrial Metals & Minerals: 11.00%
7. Credit Services:  10.05%
8. Residential Construction: 10.05%
9. Mortgage Investment: 9.50%
10. Copper: 9.30%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Consumer Services: -.95%
2. Auto Manufacturers: -.70%
3. Food Wholesale: -.50%
4. Networking & Communication Devices: .10%
5. Business Equipment: .10%
6. Drug Stores: .20%
7. Medical Practitioners: .20%
8. Healthcare Info Services: .40%
9. Silver: .50%
10. Beverages – Soft Drinks: .55%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -

1. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA)  14.65%
2. iShares Home Construction (ITB) 13.80%
3. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) 13.10%
4. Claymore China Real Estate (TAO) 11.85%
5. SPDR Metals & Mining (XME) 9.85%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. US Natural Gas (UNG) -5.15%
2. iPath India (INP) -3.75%
3. Indonesia Fund (IF) -3.05%
4. Malaysia Fund (MAY)  -2.95%
5. iShares Malaysia (EWM) -2.40%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

This section will now appear as a separate post on Mondays.

While 2008 should be a much slower year for IPO’s considering the deterioration of the market, there will continue to be some good companies coming to market here and there.  I’ll be highlighting the best IPO’s every Monday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (4/7/2008- 4/11/2008) :::

Monday:        Consumer Credit
Tuesday:       Pending Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
Wednesday:  Wholesale Inventories, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Trade Balance, Initial Claims, Treasury Budget
Friday:            Export/Import Prices, Mich. Sentiment

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday:
Alcoa (AA)

Tuesday:
Chattem (CHTT)

Thursday:
FCStone Group (FCSX), Genentech (DNA)

Friday:
Fastenal (FAST), General Electric (GE)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. ETF’s Showing Greatest Demand: iShares Taiwan (EWT) Breaks Out

2. Insider Buying at Ceco Environmental (CECE) Signals Another Big Run?

3. Put PUTs To Work As Insurance Against Disintermediation

4. Market Breaks Out But Volume Suspect; Stock of Day – AsiaInfo (ASIA)

5. Visa (V) Breakout From Bullish Triangle

Phew, what a week!  After all that .. the inflation data, the Fed decision, OJ Simpson and some  triple witching the bulls have emerged as the victor of the battle, but have they won the war?  Not yet.  As the major indices approach those July highs the threat of the dreaded double top looms.  Before I can be convinced that another major rally is in the cards, the indices will need to take out those highs convincingly.  I think before that can become a reality, there needs to be some kind of consolidation of the recent rally in order to coil  the spring for a valiant go at a big breakout.  I want to see some kind of retracement of the move off the bottom in August with declining volume which would offer an opportunity to get a bit more aggressive on the long side.  With the euphoria of the Fed move wearing off and the initial surge of short covering largely depleted, the market may just get a good rest over the next week or two before we get into the bulk of earnings.

The chart of the Nasdaq below shows there is a bit of breathing room before it smacks into major resistance at those July highs.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on those levels and see how the market reacts as it could be long term failure point.  Given the action of this Fed, I don’t think that will happen but it’s something to keep an eye one.  Note the steep upward trend over the past month which will provide an initial source of support.

The S&P is nearing that big resistance point as well but has a bit of room to run.  Again, that is a steep upward trend over the past month and I think we need to at the very least retrest that trend line before heading higher so getting aggressive on the long side up at these levels is a bit too risky in my opinion.

The Dow is much closer to those July highs (which are all time highs) and we may just hit those sometime this week.  The upward trend isn’t as steep in the Dow, but I believe also needs to at least retest that trend line before having a serious go at taking out those all time highs.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Metal Fabrication: 9.85%
2. Silver: 9.60%
3. Nonmetallic Mineral Mining: 9.40%
4. Copper: 9.35%
5. Housewares & Accessories: 9.20%
6. Steel & Iron: 8.75%
7. Gold:  8.65%
8. General Entertainment: 8.00%
9. Industrials Metals & Minerals: 7.95%
10. Agriculutural Chemicals: 7.60%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Sporting Goods: -5.00%
2. Long Distance Carriers: -4.80%
3. Toy & Hobby Stores: -4.25%
4. Manufactured Housing: -2.85%
5. Processing Systems & Products: -2.60%
6. Broadcasting – Radio: -2.45%
7. Trucking: -2.30%
8. Auto Dealerships: -2.05%
9. Medical Practitioners: -2.00%
10. Insurance Brokers: -1.80%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
 
1. Morgan Stanley China (CAF)  11.00%
2. PowerShares Golden Dragon (PGJ) 9.70%
3. Market Vectors Steel (SLX) 9.50%
4. Ishares Brazil (EWZ) 8.15%
5. Indonesia Fund (IF) 8.00%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. US Natural Gas (UNG)  -1.80%
2. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) -1.30%
3. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) .60%
4. Ishares Transports (IYT) .70%
5. Ishares Health Care (IHF)  1.00%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. Duff & Phelps (DUF): provides financial advisory services to public and private corporations, investment firms, law firms, and public accounting firms. The company specializes in offering fairness opinions regarding financial reporting, tax valuations, real estate and other asset valuations, and dispute resolution. It also offers investment banking services to companies undergoing mergers and acquisitions, financial restructurings, private placements of shares, or other transactions.  Trading set to begin on Friday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (9/24/07 – 9/28/07) :::

Monday:         None
Tuesday:       Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Durable Orders, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, GDP (final), New Home Sales
Friday:            Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation, Chicago PMI, Construction Spending

::: Upcoming Notable Earnings Reports :::

Wednesday: Paychex (PAYX)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. Breakout Stocks Review: Top Pick Simulations Plus (SLP)

2. Be Zen, Be Like Ben; Stock of Day: Yingli Green Energy (YGE)

3. Trade of Day – Amtech Systems (ASYS) Breaks Out of Cup With Handle

4. Secondary Offerings & Valuation Downgrades May Offer Opportunity

The anticlimactic end to rate hikes came to an end last week as most everyone expected. It didn’t take long for traders to "sell the news".. Remember, the market looks several months into the future and had already priced in the end to rate hikes.  Now the market turns to more important things such as the actual data that this data dependent Fed is basing its decisions on. Kicking it off on Tuesday and Wednesday is the all important  PPI and CPI inflation data which will give us another clue as to just how fast inflation is rising.  This data has the potential to be a real market mover, so be prepared one way or the other.  I still think there is more risk to the downside than potential to the upside.  We’ll probably see a pop Monday morning on news of a cease fire agreement in the Middle East, but I would expect that to be short lived.  The market has been flashing warning signs and put together another 2 days of distribution (institutional selling) last week following the Fed decision.  When the market speaks, it pays to listen.  Be careful out there.

It was another  busy and profitable week in the Model Portfolio.  Two short positions were covered – one for a quick 3 day gain of 23% in Grupo Simec (SIM), the other for a 7% loss in Business Objects (BOBJ).  These were replaced by 2 new short positions on Tuesday which I continue to hold for gains.  Only one long trade was attempted in Dril Quip (DRQ) and promptly sold for a 3% loss as the stock reversed course.  Currently, the portfolio allocation is roughly 30% short, 10% long and 60% cash.  The portfolio gained 1.5% for the week and is sitting on a gain of 14.5% year to date.

_______________________________________________________________

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** Best/Worst Performers **

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Office Supplies                            6.60%
2. Networking & Comm Devices      6.55%
3. Multimedia & Graphics Software 4.40%
4. Drugs – Generic                           4.10%
5. Personal Serivces                        2.80%
6. Catalog & Mail Order Houses       2.80%
7. Nonmetallic Mineral & Mining         2.35%
8. Specialized Health Services         2.35%
9. Hospitals                                       2.15%
10. Publishing – Periodicals               1.85%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Music & Video Stores                  -14.85%
2. Trucks & Other Vehicles             -11.35%
3. Rental & Leasing Services          -10.20%
4. Major Airlines                                -8.90%
5. Residential Construction               -8.15%
6. Farm & Construction Machinery   -7.65%
7. Drug Delivery                                -7.50%
8. Manufactured Housing                 -6.90%
9. Sporting Activities                        -6.70%
10. Movie Production                        -6.20%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
 
1. Turkish Invest Fd (TKF)                     6.00%
2.Chile Fund (CH)                                  6.00%
3. Russia & E. Europe (TRF)                 4.15%
4. Morgan Stanley India (IIF)                  3.10%
5. Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF)          3.10%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1.SPDR Homebuilders (XHB)                 -8.15%
2. Dow Jones Transportation (IYT)      -4.05%
3. PowerShares Clean Energy (PBW) -3.70%
4. Gold Miners (GDX)                           -3.60%
5. Commodity Index (DBC)                    -3.50%

**  IPO’s worth watching for the coming week **

1. InnerWorkings (INWK): provides printing solutions.  The company believes its unique technology enables it to obtain favorable pricing, deliver high quality products and services to its clients.  During the first quarter, the company reported strong growth from the year ago period.  Trading is set to start Wednesday.

2. GNC (GNC): This is a carryover from last week and no trading date has been set.  Specialty retailer of nutritional products, including vitamins, herbs, minerals and supplements with over 5800 locations worldwide.  Earnings and sales are growing quickly. 

** Upcoming Economic Reports (8/14/06- 8/18/06) **

Monday:        No Events
Tuesday:       PPI, Treasure Capital Inflows, NY Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales
Wednesday:  CPI, Industrial Production, Real Earnings, Housing Starts, Petroleum Status
                       Mortgage Applications
Thursday:      Money Supply, Philly Fed Survey, Leading Indicators, Jobless Claims
Friday:           Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

** Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them!**

- SelfInvestors Blog -

1. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (NCTY, ECLG) (Aug 10)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/08/todays_notable__4.html

2. Yahoo Demos New Ad Platform (Aug
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/08/yahoo_demos_new.html

3. Today’s Notable Earnings Mover’s (VTIV, JOBS) (Aug 7)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/08/todays_notable__3.html

On the surface, we had a great week last week, with the major indices having their best week since ’04 and clearing several resistance levels in the process (at least in the Dow and S&P500 – have a look at the latest market report released just a few hours ago: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/dow_also_surges.html).  With Bernankes recent comments, lower GDP and jobs numbers and a cooling housing market, traders are pricing in an end to rate hikes.  The concern is that what are traders going to focus on once the end to rate hikes euphoria wears off?  There aren’t too many positives out there.  The Middle East situation will be closely watched and some think that the situation will be resolved quickly.  Quickly?  They’ve been fighting for 50 years.. it won’t end quickly.  Traders will soon get their wish of an end to rate hikes, but then we’ll need to see evidence of a soft landing in the housing market and in the economy in general all while keeping inflation in check.  It’s going to be a difficult tight rope to walk over the next several months.  No wonder traders are fleeing to defensive areas.

It was another ho hum week for the Model Portfolio as I continue to sit largely on the sidelines.  I was forced out of one short trade in TWGP for a 7% loss and initiated a new long trade with an oil play that is currently up 3%.  For the coming week I’ll be considering some short term short entries and may initiate another long if the "stars are aligned".

** Best/Worst Performers **

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Semiconductor – Memory             8.55%
2. Silver                                            8.15%
3. Copper                                         7.80%
4. Drugs – Generic                           6.70%
5. Drug Related Products                 6.60%
6. Auto Manufacturers                     6.45%
7. Industrial Equipment Wholesale    6.40%
8. Computer Based Systems            6.10%
9. Oil/Gas Drilling & Exploration         5.90%
10. Heavy Construction                    5.90%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Consumer Services                    -10.80%
2. Music & Video Stores                  -9.05%
3. Health Care Plans                         -8.70%
4. Lodging                                         -7.65%
5. Manufactured Housing                 -7.20%
6. Resorts & Casinos                       -6.25%
7. Air Delivery & Freight Service      -6.20%
8. Food Wholesale                            -5.80%
9. Office Supplies                             -4.65%
10. Trucking                                      -4.10%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
 
1. HLDRS Telecom (TTH)                      5.70%
2. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)  5.70%
3. HLDRS Oil Service (OIH)                   5.60%
4. HLDRS Semis (SMH)                         5.60%
5. Ishares Semis (IGW)                         5.50%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. Ishares Transportation (IYT)             -3.15%
2. HLDRS Internet (HHH)                       -2.70%
3. PowerShares Retail (PMR)               -1.65%
4. HLDRS Retail (RTH)                            -.70%
5. India Fund (IFN)                                  -.65%

**  There are no IPO’s worth watching for the coming week **

** Upcoming Economic Reports (7/31/06- 8/4/06) **

Monday:        Chicago PMI
Tuesday:       ISM Manufacturing, Personal Income, Construction Spending, Retail Sales
Wednesday:  Petroleum Status, Mortgage Apps
Thursday:      Money Supply, Factory Orders, ISM Non Manufacturing, Monster Employment  
                       Index, Jobless Claims
Friday:           Employment Situation, Public Debt

** Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them!**

- SelfInvestors Blog -

1. Dow Surges Above Downward Trend Line, But Market Flashes Red Flags (July 30th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/dow_also_surges.html

2. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (FORM, RACK) (June 28th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable__3.html

3. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (AKAM, KNDL) (June 27th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable__2.html

4. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (TRMB, CHH) (June 26th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable__2.html

5. S&P Clears Resistance, Dow Next? (June 25th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/sp_clears_resis.html

6. Today’s Notable Earnings Mover’s (HOLX, NTRI) (June 25th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable_.html

On Tuesday, the market showed great resiliency by shrugging off bombings in India and reversing off the lows to end the day at the highs.  It was another big step in the right direction and it appeared the market was ready for a little run above key resistance levels (the 50 day moving averages of the Dow and S&P500).  That all changed with increasing tensions in the Middle East toward the end of the week.  With escalating violence and oil prices (break out to all time highs), the market turned tail, selling off with volume and setting up a move to retest the previous lows of the correction.  Despite the heavy selling of last week, there are no signs that the market is done selling.    I mentioned in a report during the week (www.investing.typepad.com), that the 2 year trend lines of the Dow and S&P500 are now in danger as well (the Nasdaq remains well below this important level of support).  With earnings kicking off in full force beginning this week, inflation data on Tues and Wed, FOMC minutes Thurs and the escalating situation in the Middle East, volatility will remain the name of the game.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of panic selling in the near future and a breach of those important trend lines.  How the market recovers from this kind of selling will be very important.  At this point, it’s best to get out of the way and let this market do its thing and test those trend lines from the sidelines. 

Following Tuesdays higher volume reversal, I made the mistake of anticipating a few more up days instead of being more patient and waiting for a confirmation move above resistance.  I initiated a couple more small long positions and was caught leaning the wrong way.  The Model Portfolio took a little hit, but damage was kept to a minimum as profits were locked in and losses cut quickly.  All  5 long positions were closed (3 Quick Strike Profit plays in CELG, BMRN and VRTX were closed for an average loss of 1.34%; 2 Breakout Stock plays were closed for an average loss of 4.15%).  The Model Portfolio was down about 1.5% for the week, but still well ahead of the S&P500 with a YTD gain of 12.9%, compared to a 1% loss for the S&P.

** Best/Worst Performers **

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

Oil stocks were clearly the leaders of last week, but considering the breakout to all time highs, those gains are not impressive.  There is a clear divergence right now between the price of crude and the price of most of the oil stocks.  Traders are probably waiting for the earnings of these companies to be released.  Keep an eye on how the stock prices react once earnings are released.

1. Multimedia & Graphics                  4.65%
2. Oil & Gas Equip & Services          2.80%
3. Major Integrated Oil & Gas            0.65%
4. Silver                                             0.65%
5. Independent Oil & Gas                  0.30%
6. Health Care Plans                          0.00%
7. Home Health Care                         -0.16%
8. Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing     -0.18%
9. Oil/Gas Drilling & Exploration         -0.20%
10. Banks – Southeast                       -0.25%

- Top 10 Worst Performig Industries For the Week -

1. Major Airlines                             -10.55%
2. Manufactured Housing                -9.90%
3. Catalog & Mail Order Houses       -9.90%
4. Farm & Construction Machinery   -9.75%
5. Regional Airlines                           -9.10%
6. Sporting Goods                            -9.10%
7. Residential Construction              -8.75%
8. Drug Related Products                 -7.90%
9. Music & Video Stores                  -7.50%
10. Building Materials Wholesale     -7.50%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -
 
1. Ishares Gold (IAU)                        6.30%
2. StreetTracks Gold (GLD)              6.18%
3. Ishares Silver (SLV)                     3.75%
4. DB Commodity (DBC)                    3.60%
5. Ishares US Energy  (XLE)             2.00%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF’s -

1. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB)               -8.85%
2. Ishares Mexico (EWW)                     -6.95%
3. Ishares Japan (EWJ)                        -6.10%
4. Ishares Transportation (IYT)            -6.00%
5. Ishares Sweden  (EWD)                  -5.95%

**  IPO’s Set to Launch This Week **

It’s a real slow week for IPO’s

1.  NewPage Holdings (NWP):  The largest North American maker of coated paper by production capacity continues to operate at a loss.

** Upcoming Economic Reports (7/17/06- 7/21/06) **

Monday:        Industrial Production, NY Empire Manufacturing
Tuesday:       PPI
Wednesday:  CPI, Housing Starts, Petroleum Status, Mortgage Apps
Thursday:      Money Supply, FOMC Minutes, Philly Fed Survey, Jobless Claims
Friday:           None

It’s been some time since I’ve posted ETF movers and today is a good day to begin again considering today’s move is a significant one.  The Nasdaq is clearing key resistance at 2200 and looks like it will hold above that level into the close.  However, today’s move is lacking oomph as indicated by the lack of ETFs making a big move today.  In addition, volume levels for the major market tracking ETF’s (QQQQ, SPY and DIA) are running below average at this point in the trading day with volume 9%, 18% and 41% below average.  (Data as of 2:30EST)

Note: The DI scores measure the demand of the ETF using price and volument movements.  The higher the score, the greater the demand for the fund.  The China Ishares ETF is making another big move today, as it has over the past couple of weeks.  The fund showing the greatest demand over the past 20 days is the Ishares Malaysia (EWM) ETF with a score of 26.  The following table shows the top 10 over the past 20 days.

The market is following through nicely, adding to Friday’s gains.  It appears we’ll get another day of accumulation as volume on the major indices are ahead of Friday’s session.  Today, small caps lead the way as indicated by the movement in the small cap Ishares ETF’s.  As far as specific industries -technology, select emerging markets (Canada again!) and some basic materials/commodites are doing very well.  Nice move in Dynamic Materials (BOOM) today.  Add transportation to the mix as well. (Data as of 3PM EST)

Volume is accelerating during the selloff over the last hour or so as key support levels in the major indices approach.  Here’s a look at which areas of the market are moving with volume today. Data as of 3PM EST.  The only bright spot today appears to be the semis.