Mar

28

2006

No End in Sight to Rate Hikes

The market was looking for a party, but the Fed wasn’t in the celebratory mood.  It seems before every new Fed announcement on rates there are predictions that we’re in one and done mode.. or maybe one and another and done mode, or…  ah well, predictions never mattered anyway.  What’s important is that it’s clear the Fed doesn’t have any idea what the future holds as all decisions appear to hinge on the fluctuation of commodity prices, which as we know can be quite volatile.  The market was hoping for some sense of certainty today and once again didn’t get it and the market immediately sold off as volume picked up. While today’s negative technical action is fairly significant, we’re by no means in danger of breaking down.  Rememeber, that the first move after a Fed announcement is often misleading, so we’ll need a day or two to get a true sense of this market will hold up after the latest Fed decision.  Here’s a quick look at the charts:

You see the Nasdaq remains in consolidation mode, but the fact it has had 2 failed breakout attempts in addition to multiple distribution days in the last 2 weeks is a concern.  However, support levels remain intact, so we shall see.

In both the Dow and S&P, there remains quite a bit of wiggle room left before we need to be at all concerned.  Following today’s move, that momentum will most likely continue in the coming days and a test of support is a great possiblility.  Keep an eye on these key support levels.