Mar

30

2005

Not Impressed

Just short lived short covering or something more?  That’s the question after today’s big move up from oversold conditions.  You’d think with the broad based rally throughout the day,  that volume would have swelled.  Not the case.  Volume levels were disappointing, indicating institutions continue to be less than enthusiastic about putting cash to work.  Today’s move was a move in the right direction, but until we see some heavy volume up days, nothing has changed.  A cautious approach remains the best strategy.

The Nasdaq managed to reclaim critical support around 2000, but as you can see, volume was below average.  Suprising, considering the magnitude of the gains.

The Dow continues to hold above support around previous consolidation and the 200 day moving average at around 10,375.  This is a very important area of support for the Dow and will be watched closely.  If it can’t hold there, a drop to 10,000 becomes highly likely.

The S&P also remains above key support of previous consolidation (around 1160 – 1165) and the 200 day moving average at 1150.  Should today’s bounce continue for a few days, it may hit resistance of the 50 day moving average at 1195.  I would expect both the Dow and S&P to yo yo between their respective support and resistance levels for a couple weeks before the next big move in either direction.  One thing is clear though.. the technical action indicates an ornery market and that doesn’t look to change for some time.