Jan

09

2006

Springboard Off Support

What a start to 2006.  It’s been about as good a start to 2006 as the start to 2005 was bad.. alleviating fears of another meltdown to start the new year and once again catching many off guard.  The breakout to multi year highs in the S&P and Nasdaq that occurred in November remains intact as price and volume movement in the first 4 trading days of ’06 indicate another leg up is in the works.  Clearly, the move on Friday with increasing volume indicated that the move after the releases of the Fed notes on Tuesday was much more than just a knee jerk reaction (which can often happen after Fed announcements).

All eyes will be on the Dow this week to see if it to too can join the party and maintain a breakout to multi year highs.  It will need to break above 10984 (high of the 2 year consolidation it reached in March of ’05) as well as psychological resistance of 11,000.  At this point that looks inevitable but some consolidation in the market should be expected at this point before moving higher. 

With a view of a multi year weekly chart of the Dow, you can see where a breakout needs to occur in the Dow.

The following charts illustrate the impressive moves off support following the release of the Fed notes on Tuesday.  There is no reason to believe at this point we can’t get another major move up (after a little consolidation)