Jul

20

2004

Where Do We Go From Here?

Obviously, July has been ugly for the market, especially for the Nasdaq. Fear is building as negative events/outlooks continue to get priced in. But I don’t think we’ve seen the end of the selling just yet. Bottoms usually occur at major reversals (or capitulation) where panic selling becomes overdone and buyers step in. This should occur with high volume. Let’s take a step back and look at the long term chart of the Nasdaq to get an idea of where this capitulation may occur. First of all where would panic selling most likely take place? The obvious choice is when/if the Nasdaq takes out the low of this most recent correction at 1865. Where might buyers step in to put in a bottom? Again, the obvious choice would be major support of the long term trend line in green at around 1850. This long term trend line is a very important support level that will be crucial in maintaining the long term uptrend experienced over the last year and a half. In my humble opinion, I believe this scenario plays out to some degree and the uptrend continues.