Apr

13

2005

Apple a Big Gamble

If you’re holding Apple Computer (AAPL) through its earnings report tonight you’re making a big gamble.  Apple has raised the bar for this quarter’s earnings report, so anything short of a blow out quarter could derail this stock in a hurry.  Analyst estimates put earnings this quarter at .24 a share, but Apple will need to handily beat the "whishper number" of .28 and provide positive guidance if it hopes to avoid getting bruised tomorrow.

Also concerning is the deteriorating technical action over the last couple weeks.  High volume selling in early March has been followed by tepid buying.  Add to the mix a difficult market and it becomes clear that holding a stock that has already a had a tremendous run through its earnings report doesn’t make much sense.  Holding out of fear of missing further gains is a decision based on greed and should be avoided.  Should a sell off occur tomorrow, next support areas to keep an eye on are 35 and 30.  Regardless of what happens with the stock, it will be interesting to hear just how fast those Ipods are flying off the shelves after the bell today.